
Newsletter – October 2016, Update 1

For the record, I didn’t watch it – The Wave is about to be tested, my friend.
For the same record, I didn’t watch it, either. Looks like Hillary came out on top for this one. But I don’t get what you mean by “The Wave is about to be tested, my friend.” More, please…
I didn’t come to the pairing of the two Randy Newman songs that appear below by myself. On this past Friday, Newman released a 4 LP set of his songs, just voice and piano, and on the last side, side eight, these two songs, which should follow one another, did follow one another. I had remembered the first, but not the second (it never appeared on any album he released until now).
A Few Words in Defense of Our Country (2007) I’m Dreaming (2012)
I guess what I am raising is what Randy raises in the first song: the end of an empire. I know that doesn’t necessarily mean The Wave breaks down, it does seem to mean that we don’t go forward to a more evolved system. You raised the same notion July 3rd during our Brexit-AI project, when you wrote:“…I obviously do have concerns about returning to the darkness of plagues, pain and primitive idiocy. The upside is that the frenzy might get slowed down substantially (which would be a hard for the first ten generations), but later ones might get back to a pastoral life for some centuries before going crazy with technology again. Like you, I am conceptually very uncomfortable with this Ikea, Takata, Volkswagen, 2010 Deep Water Horizon world, but I’ve managed to mostly avoid it by living in Vermont and New Zealand…”
Most people seemed to be approaching last night as some sort of fix for their excitement Jones. They wanted fireworks, they wanted a battle. Hillary and Trump were really only the surrogates for these people’s emotional needs at this juncture in our nation’s history. There don’t seem to be actual numbers yet but the preliminary ratings are in. Debate overnight: 46.2/63 across four broadcast and three cable news networks. As a comparison: Super Bowl 50, the most-watched television show this year, received a 46.6 rating and a 72 share. 111 million people watched the Denver Broncos defeat the Carolina Panthers. This is not the way to run a railroad, or a nation for that matter.
It seems the post-1900 European Empires have found ways to move on from the loss of empire that is a positive evolution. Of course the case can be made that without the help of the US-moving-into-empire, that evolution may not have occurred. It wouldn’t have been much fun to have Germany and Japan running the latter half of the 20th century. Still, the Wave seems to function whether we like the results or not.
I think you make an interesting point about the US replacing other empires. This has been an historically frequent occurrence, except for when the Dark Ages hit, at least for the western world and in the Mediterranean (Egypt, Greece, Rome).
What I have been pondering, the past day or so, is the atomization of all this anger and frustration in our country. There are so many fractional groups angry at other fractional groups. There is overlap, in some cases, but for the Wave to work, there has to be, I think, sufficient coalescence around something, some person, some paradigm, for us to exit the Unforming. This, I think is the big challenge for our Nation. We certainly aren’t up to it now, it isn’t clear to me that we will be up to it in the future. There exist too any feedback loops presently that server to reinforce the retention of beliefs, rather than opening people up to new beliefs or changing beliefs. The next empire, some say, will be China. I guess if they can build an island in the South China Sea, they now have tennis courts on the island ;-), they can build one or two in the Atlantic or Pacific. Who needs Cuba, when you can build one or two yourself ;-). An addition from The Donster… “I found this review fascinating in its parallels to today. Very chilling.”A major new biography—an extraordinary, penetrating study of the man who has become the personification of evil.
“Ullrich reveals Hitler to have been an eminently practical politician—and frighteningly so. Timely… One of the best works on Hitler and the origins of the Third Reich to appear in recent years.” —Kirkus Reviews “An outstanding study… All the huge, and terrible moments of the early Nazi era are dissected…but the real strength of this book is in disentangling the personal story of man and monster.” —The Guardian (U.K.)…and another from a Friend…
“Thanks for pointing out this article, Don. Oh my yes: chilling. “I do think Trump is hugely skilled. So was Palin. Trump is even more skilled. And, much more ambitious. The parallels with Hitler are absolute. And he obviously has practiced Mussolini’s facial expressions. “I’m saddened by the number of well-known people, flawed (because they are far-right conservatives) who support him. I assume they are the same as those described in this article: people who think their own careers will be advanced. Greedy. Shocking.
Thank you, Donster and Friend. We need our “reasonable” politicians to understand how powerful being “unreasonable” can be and learn to better communicate with angry voters. “Basket of Deplorables” is erroneous and stupid and misses the mark in so many ways! “Unreasonable” emotions determine many more votes than “logical” facts.
Actually, this takes us back further than March, in some respects, it takes us back to the election in 2008 and the Don’t Think Of An Elephant thread and the main point of that book. We’re eight years down the road and the Democrats/Progressive can’t counter, or match, the Republicans/Conservatives when it comes to forming persuasive messages. My god, as Krugman pointed out look at the numbers for Libertarian candidate and what his party’s platform represents. Yet, many of the millennials are supporting him rather than Hillary. Let me share something with you, perhaps you didn’t know this, it’s chilling. Two weekends ago, I was at the East Bank Club and ran into a past Public Defender friend. We were talking about the state of affairs here in Chicago. The gang violence, etc., what to do about it. How clueless Rahm is about the problems and solutions. At one point I said: “ It’s just messed up that these gang members are just killing people— sometimes they are recording the murders with their cellphones and posting it on social media. When we started out in the 1970’s, that wasn’t even on the radar.” He said to me: “It’s not just messed up, it’s completely bizarre.” Badges of honor, however, should be worn. Killing somebody is a badge of honor in the gangs. So, why not boast by posting? Makes perfect sense. Gil Scott Heron wrote the “Revolution Won’t Be Televised” but it will, Roger Ailes has seen to that. You introduced me to the power and seduction of the screen, it has proven to be more true than I think you imagined back in the 60’s. This was just a TV introduction back then, now, it’s far, far truer, because it isn’t just two screens, as we had back then (movies TVs). It’s every computer screen. Every piece of propaganda, misinformation, etc., that can easily be found on the Internet, including how to make bombs to blow up a marathon race or maybe even Wrigley Field just before the Cubs are about to win the World Series in late October, which will be broadcast on Fox (of course!). What a coup for ISIS that would be. Take out a bunch of Jews in the front rows and send a message about America’s pastime. Let’s go back for a moment, to the subject of the pervasive under-current of anger and how much it has become a part of most of our lives, in one respect or another. For instance, think of what getting on a commercial flight was like in the 50-70’s. Now look at it. Who wouldn’t have some anger when they actually get on the plane. And what’s the difference? I would argue being treated like a human being versus being treated like a unit to be handled. Now think about the experience when you had a problem with a product or service in the past. You started out with a certain amount of anger, but then you went to the store, or called on the phone, and the people, for the most part, were trained to treat you well and to be helpful. But you were always greeted by a human voice or an actual person. That initial touch of humanity, right at the beginning, is a huge psychological thing, it may ring the mom or dad bell deep down inside. Now, look at what we have? We start out angry and are made even more angry by the literally inhuman treatment we receive before we can possibly get to a human being.
This is repetitively psychologically costly to us as individuals, but here’s the thing, I think, it would be costly to companies to go back to the old system, unless the company is as big and monolithic as Amazon, who has a terrific human call center. But for the most part, I doubt the vast majority of business can actually afford to re-humanize their businesses. Just like it is doubtful newspapers can stop the incursion of AI to write news articles for the papers and add, not subtract reporters (and it won’t be just newspapers, the news services on the Internet will/are adopting similar models).
And so….. I had literally put my head on the pillow, turned off the light, and then it hit me, could be wrong, but not all that wrong: Who’s the robot in this election? – Hillary. Who’s the pandering human in this election? – The Donald. Maslow could decide this election. At the very least, to answer Hillary’s question: This is a large part of why she isn’t up by 50 points in this election. For all his flaws, and everything else, and perhaps because of it, Trump is so much more human than Hillary, at least as they are projecting themselves to the electorate. Humans love. Humans hate. Humans say and do all kinds of conflicted, dumb things ALL THE TIME. And humans forgive dumb, stupid, hateful things ALL THE TIME. Hillary did with Bubba. Huma did with Anthony until he just crossed the line too far. I think the people, and certainly a whole lot of the people, want a human, even at what appears, presently, to be a severe cost.
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3. THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT BY EDITORIAL BOARD, THE REPUBLIC, AZCENTRAL.COM, SEPTEMBER 27, 2016
Hillary Clinton is the only choice to move America ahead
Hillary Clinton knows the issues, history and facts. (Photo: AFP/Getty Images)
Clinton has argued America’s case before friendly and unfriendly foreign leaders with tenacity, diplomacy and skill. She earned respect by knowing the issues, the history and the facts. She is intimately familiar with the challenges we face in our relations with Russia, China, the Middle East, North Korea and elsewhere. She’ll stand by our friends and she’s not afraid to confront our enemies. Contrast Clinton’s tenacity and professionalism with Trump, who began his campaign with gross generalities about Mexico and Mexicans as criminals and rapists These were careless slaps at a valued trading partner and Arizona’s neighbor. They were thoughtless insults about people whose labor and energy enrich our country. Trump demonstrated his clumsiness on the world stage by making nice with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto only a few hours before appearing in Phoenix to deliver yet another rant about Mexican immigrants and border walls. Arizona’s been there on immigration (it doesn’t work) What’s more, Arizona went down the hardline immigration road Trump travels. It led our state to SB 1070, the 2010 “show me your papers” law that earned Arizona international condemnation and did nothing to resolve real problems with undocumented immigration. Arizona understands that we don’t need a repeat of that divisive, unproductive fiasco on the national level. A recent poll shows Arizonans oppose both more walls and the mass deportations Trump endorses. We need a president who can broker solutions. Clinton calls for comprehensive immigration reform, a goal that business, faith and law enforcement leaders have sought for years. Her support for a pathway to citizenship and her call for compassion for families torn apart by deportation are consistent with her longtime support for human rights. Clinton’s equality vs. Trump’s lack of respect Hillary Clinton has made a career fighting for gender As secretary of state, Clinton made gender equality a priority for U.S. foreign policy. This is an extension of Clinton’s bold “women’s rights are human rights” speech in 1995. It reflects an understanding that America’s commitment to human rights is a critically needed beacon in today’s troubled world. Trump’s long history of objectifying women and his demeaning comments about women during the campaign are not just good-old-boy gaffes. They are evidence of deep character flaws. They are part of a pattern. Trump mocked a reporter’s physical handicap Picked a fight with a Gold Star family Insulted POWs Suggested a Latino judge can’t be fair because of his heritage. Proposed banning Muslim immigration. Each of those comments show a stunning lack of human decency, empathy and respect. Taken together they reveal a candidate who doesn’t grasp our national ideals. A centrist or a wild card? Many Republicans understand this. But they shudder at the thought of Hillary Clinton naming Supreme Court justices. So they stick with Trump. We get that. But we ask them to see Trump for what he is — and what he is not. Trump’s conversion to conservatism is recent and unconvincing. There is no guarantee he will name solid conservatives to the Supreme Court. Hillary Clinton has long been a centrist. Despite her tack left to woo Bernie Sanders supporters, Clinton retains her centrist roots. Her justices might not be in the mold of Antonin Scalia, but they will be accomplished individuals with the experience, education and intelligence to handle the job. They will be competent. Just as she is competent. If a candidate can’t control his words Never in its 126-year history has The Arizona Republic editorial board endorsed a Democratic presidential candidate over a Republican. Trump’s inability to control himself or be controlled by others represents a real threat to our national security. His recent efforts to stay on script are not reassuring. They are phony. The president commands our nuclear arsenal. Trump can’t command his own rhetoric. Were he to become president, his casual remarks — such as saying he wouldn’t defend NATO partners from invasion — could have devastating consequences. Trump has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin a thug who has made it clear he wants to expand Russia’s international footprint. Trump suggested Russia engage in espionage against Hillary Clinton — an outrageous statement that he later insisted was meant in jest. Trump said President Obama and Hillary Clinton were “co-founders” of ISIS then walked that back by saying it was sarcasm. It was reckless. Being the leader of the free world requires a sense of propriety that Trump lacks. Clinton’s opportunity to heal this nation We understand that Trump’s candidacy tapped a deep discontent among those who feel left behind by a changed economy and shifting demographics. Their concerns deserve to be discussed with respect. Ironically, Trump hasn’t done that. He has merely pandered. Instead of offering solutions, he hangs scapegoats like piñatas and invites people to take a swing. In a nation with an increasingly diverse population, Trump offers a recipe for permanent civil discord. In a global economy, he offers protectionism and a false promise to bring back jobs that no longer exist. America needs to look ahead and build a new era of prosperity for the working class. This is Hillary Clinton’s opportunity. She can reach out to those who feel left behind. She can make it clear that America sees them and will address their concerns. She can move us beyond rancor and incivility. The Arizona Republic endorses Hillary Clinton for president. ================================================= 4. TRUMP’S RISE REFLECTS AMERICA’S DECLINE BY GEORGE WILL, NEWSMAX, SEPTEMBER 30, 2016
Looking on the bright side, perhaps this election can teach conservatives to look on the dark side. They need a talent for pessimism, recognizing the signs that whatever remains of American exceptionalism does not immunize this nation from decay, to which all regimes are susceptible.
You’re Not Meant To Do What You Love.
You’re Meant To Do What You’re Good At.
When people learn that I’m a writer, more than half of them will immediately tell me about how they have an idea for a book, or that they need an editor for their autobiography, or that, though it sounds crazy, they are certain they have this one idea that would be a mega bestseller. Like, one of the biggest books in the world. I have not known one of them to have published anything — nor are they working on their (supposedly brilliant) bodies of work. They aren’t asking about how to write 5,000+ words a day. They aren’t strategizing their marketing plans, or researching agencies, or pitching queries to publishing houses. In other cases, writing a few articles a day becomes too much labor, their ideas dry out after a month. They’re frustrated. They’re at odds with themselves. The very thing they love is proving to be a wrong fit. How can this be?============================================
THE CENTER FOR THIRD AGE LEADERSHIP – JUNE 2016 1. FATHER WILLIAM’S MUSINGS 2. HOW AMERICAN POLITICS WENT INSANEI. IMMUNITY WHY THE POLITICAL CLASS IS A GOOD THING
II. VULNERABILITY HOW THE WAR ON MIDDLEMEN LEFT AMERICA HELPLESS III. PATHOGENS DONALD TRUMP AND OTHER VIRUSES
IV. SYMPTOMS THE DISORDER THAT EXACERBATES ALL OTHER DISORDERS
V. PROGNOSIS & TREATMENT CHAOS SYNDROME AS A PSYCHIATRIC DISORDER
3. THIS MONTH’S LINKS ============================================ QUOTES OF THE MONTH – TONY BLAIR & MATTHEW D’ANCONA “It was already clear before the Brexit vote that modern populist movements could take control of political parties. What wasn’t clear was whether they could take over a country like Britain. Now we know they can…” “In leaving the world’s largest single market, Britain has resigned from the grown-ups’ table and effectively kicked out a prime minister voters had re-elected only 13 months earlier. As tantrums go, this was Olympic-class…”Romance & Intimacy
It’s spring again. Everything is bursting with life and hormones are flowing everywhere, most definitely in me. Every year at this time I want to be in love again. Not the mature, comfortable and continuing love I have with my beautiful wife, but that crazy, turn-your-life-upside-down kind of love only the immaturity of adolescence could indulge in. I miss those ridiculously romantic days of my youth. Don’t you?Woke up, it was a Chelsea morning, and the first thing that I knew There was milk and toast and honey and a bowl of oranges, too And the sun poured in like butterscotch and stuck to all my senses
Oh, won’t you stay We’ll put on the day And we’ll talk in present tenses When the curtain closes and the rainbow runs away I will bring you incense Owls by night By candlelight By jewel-light If only you will stay…
How could the “day-after-day” of one partner ever compete with such exhilaration and ecstasy? How could we not be seduced away from our daily routines of jobs, diapers, PTA meetings and mortgage payments by a “Bridges of Madison County”? Why do we stay in the ordinariness of our small towns and suburbs and apartments? Because, ecstatic as romance can be, the maturity of intimacy offers more.Enlightenment is just intimacy with all things. Eihei Dogan
We are woefully unprepared to resolve the paradox of romance and intimacy, particularly when we embark on serious commitments like marriage. I probably qualify as some sort of expert here having been married four times (a very dubious distinction). Something that helped clarify the complexity involved came to me years ago in the Parade Magazine supplement to our Sunday paper. (Wisdom comes in the most unlikely places – I certainly didn’t expect it in Parade Magazine). There was an article written by a French woman, and it was about how funny we Americans are in the way we try to do our relationships with our significant others. She said there are fundamentally two kinds of relationships between partners, and they’re very, very different. In fact, she suggested they are to some extent mutually exclusive. One form these relationships take is romance. Romance is steeped in mystique which is based on unfamiliarity, newness and all the kinds of unknowing that lets you project your romantic ideal (Doris Day, Denzel Washington, Jennifer Lopez, Leo DiCaprio, whoever…) onto the other person. You haven’t yet got enough experience with your beloved to have your projection smashed on the rocks of reality. That’s romantic infatuation, and it never survives real intimacy. The other form these relationships take is the true intimacy of companionship. Intimacy grows in sharing life together and is rooted in the familiarity of day-to-day closeness (including underwear left on the floor, shaving stubble in the sink and “Oh, I forgot to tell you…”) and all the other kinds of knowing that make maintaining projected ideals impossible. (If you want to be an ideal, stay away from intimacy – this is why our politicians are so careful never to let you see these all-too-human sides of them). Intimacy means knowing our partners on all their dimensions, and this raises hell with the romantic illusions we often start out with. This wise French lady (whose name I wish I could remember) went on to say, “How strange you Americans are! You think you can have both romantic illusion and intimate companionship in the same relationship. In France we understand and honor the differences between these two. We have our marriages for companionship and our affairs for romance.” Now I’m not suggesting we should plan to have affairs, but what her article did for me was raise up this apparent paradox between romantic exhilaration and intimate companionship, for, of course, any alive person wants both. To me this means once I pass the borders of infatuation (where I can project my romantic ideal on the other person), I’m going to have to redefine romance. It can no longer be infatuation based on lack of familiarity; it has to be something else. I do know that companionship and its intimacy has become much more important than romance as I’ve gotten older, whereas romance was much more important when I was younger. Now Donna (my fourth and last wife) would certainly object more than a little to my saying intimacy’s so important to me. She says I rarely tell her anything of significance without her asking, and I admit that’s largely true (I’m convinced it’s a gender thing more than a personal defect). But at sixty-five our being together and around each other has become the heart of our relationship for me. This is true even though I have always been, and still am, a romantic by nature. Romance is conceptually still attractive, but not with anywhere near the power it used to have…I. Immunity Why the political class is a good thing
The Founders knew all too well about chaos. It was the condition that brought them together in 1787 under the Articles of Confederation. The central government had too few powers and powers of the wrong kinds, so they gave it more powers, and also multiple power centers. The core idea of the Constitution was to restrain ambition and excess by forcing competing powers and factions to bargain and compromise. The Framers worried about demagogic excess and populist caprice, so they created buffers and gatekeepers between voters and the government. Only one chamber, the House of Representatives, would be directly elected. A radical who wanted to get into the Senate would need to get past the state legislature, which selected senators; a usurper who wanted to seize the presidency would need to get past the Electoral College, a convocation of elders who chose the president; and so on. They were visionaries, those men in Philadelphia, but they could not foresee everything, and they made a serious omission. Unlike the British parliamentary system, the Constitution makes no provision for holding politicians accountable to one another. A rogue member of Congress can’t be “fired” by his party leaders, as a member of Parliament can; a renegade president cannot be evicted in a vote of no confidence, as a British prime minister can. By and large, American politicians are independent operators, and they became even more independent when later reforms, in the 19th and early 20th centuries, neutered the Electoral College and established direct election to the Senate.II. Vulnerability How the war on middlemen left America defenseless
Beginning early in the 20th century, and continuing right up to the present, reformers and the public turned against every aspect of insider politics: professional politicians, closed-door negotiations, personal favors, party bosses, financial ties, all of it. Progressives accused middlemen of subverting the public interest; populists accused them of obstructing the people’s will; conservatives accused them of protecting and expanding big government. To some extent, the reformers were right. They had good intentions and valid complaints. Back in the 1970s, as a teenager in the post-Watergate era, I was on their side. Why allow politicians ever to meet behind closed doors? Sunshine is the best disinfectant! Why allow private money to buy favors and distort policy making? Ban it and use Treasury funds to finance elections! It was easy, in those days, to see that there was dirty water in the tub. What was not so evident was the reason the water was dirty, which was the baby. So we started reforming. We reformed the nominating process. The use of primary elections instead of conventions, caucuses, and other insider-dominated processes dates to the era of Theodore Roosevelt, but primary elections and party influence coexisted through the 1960s; especially in congressional and state races, party leaders had many ways to influence nominations and vet candidates. According to Jon Meacham, in his biography of George H. W. Bush, here is how Bush’s father, Prescott Bush, got started in politics: “Samuel F. Pryor, a top Pan Am executive and a mover in Connecticut politics, called Prescott to ask whether Bush might like to run for Congress. ‘If you would,’ Pryor said, ‘I think we can assure you that you’ll be the nominee.’ ” Today, party insiders can still jawbone a little bit, but, as the 2016 presidential race has made all too clear, there is startlingly little they can do to influence the nominating process. Primary races now tend to be dominated by highly motivated extremists and interest groups, with the perverse result of leaving moderates and broader, less well-organized constituencies underrepresented. According to the Pew Research Center, in the first 12 presidential-primary contests of 2016, only 17 percent of eligible voters participated in Republican primaries, and only 12 percent in Democratic primaries. In other words, Donald Trump seized the lead in the primary process by winning a mere plurality of a mere fraction of the electorate. In off-year congressional primaries, when turnout is even lower, it’s even easier for the tail to wag the dog. In the 2010 Delaware Senate race, Christine “I am not a witch” O’Donnell secured the Republican nomination by winning just a sixth of the state’s registered Republicans, thereby handing a competitive seat to the Democrats. Surveying congressional primaries for a 2014 Brookings Institution report, the journalists Jill Lawrence and Walter Shapiro observed: “The universe of those who actually cast primary ballots is small and hyper-partisan, and rewards candidates who hew to ideological orthodoxy.” By contrast, party hacks tend to shop for candidates who exert broad appeal in a general election and who will sustain and build the party’s brand, so they generally lean toward relative moderates and team players.Parties, machines, and hacks may not have been pretty, but they did their job — so well that the country forgot why it needed them.
Moreover, recent research by the political scientists Jamie L. Carson and Jason M. Roberts finds that party leaders of yore did a better job of encouraging qualified mainstream candidates to challenge incumbents. “In congressional districts across the country, party leaders were able to carefully select candidates who would contribute to the collective good of the ticket,” Carson and Roberts write in their 2013 book, Ambition, Competition, and Electoral Reform: The Politics of Congressional Elections Across Time. “This led to a plentiful supply of quality candidates willing to enter races, since the potential costs of running and losing were largely underwritten by the party organization.” The switch to direct primaries, in which contenders generally self-recruit and succeed or fail on their own account, has produced more oddball and extreme challengers and thereby made general elections less competitive. “A series of reforms that were intended to create more open and less ‘insider’ dominated elections actually produced more entrenched politicians,” Carson and Roberts write. The paradoxical result is that members of Congress today are simultaneously less responsive to mainstream interests and harder to dislodge. Was the switch to direct public nomination a net benefit or drawback? The answer to that question is subjective. But one effect is not in doubt: Institutionalists have less power than ever before to protect loyalists who play well with other politicians, or who take a tough congressional vote for the team, or who dare to cross single-issue voters and interests; and they have little capacity to fend off insurgents who owe nothing to anybody. Walled safely inside their gerrymandered districts, incumbents are insulated from general-election challenges that might pull them toward the political center, but they are perpetually vulnerable to primary challenges from extremists who pull them toward the fringes. Everyone worries about being the next Eric Cantor, the Republican House majority leader who, in a shocking upset, lost to an unknown Tea Partier in his 2014 primary. Legislators are scared of voting for anything that might increase the odds of a primary challenge, which is one reason it is so hard to raise the debt limit or pass a budget. In March, when Republican Senator Jerry Moran of Kansas told a Rotary Club meeting that he thought President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee deserved a Senate hearing, the Tea Party Patriots immediately responded with what has become activists’ go-to threat: “It’s this kind of outrageous behavior that leads Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund activists and supporters to think seriously about encouraging Dr. Milton Wolf”—a physician and Tea Party activist—“to run against Sen. Moran in the August GOP primary.” (Moran hastened to issue a statement saying that he would oppose Obama’s nominee regardless.) Purist issue groups often have the whip hand now, and unlike the elected bosses of yore, they are accountable only to themselves and are able merely to prevent legislative action, not to organize it. We reformed political money. Starting in the 1970s, large-dollar donations to candidates and parties were subject to a tightening web of regulations. The idea was to reduce corruption (or its appearance) and curtail the power of special interests—certainly laudable goals. Campaign-finance rules did stop some egregious transactions, but at a cost: Instead of eliminating money from politics (which is impossible), the rules diverted much of it to private channels. Whereas the parties themselves were once largely responsible for raising and spending political money, in their place has arisen a burgeoning ecology of deep-pocketed donors, super pacs, 501(c)(4)s, and so-called 527 groups that now spend hundreds of millions of dollars each cycle. The result has been the creation of an array of private political machines across the country: for instance, the Koch brothers’ Americans for Prosperity and Karl Rove’s American Crossroads on the right, and Tom Steyer’s NextGen Climate on the left. Private groups are much harder to regulate, less transparent, and less accountable than are the parties and candidates, who do, at the end of the day, have to face the voters. Because they thrive on purism, protest, and parochialism, the outside groups are driving politics toward polarization, extremism, and short-term gain. “You may win or lose, but at least you have been intellectually consistent—your principles haven’t been defeated,” an official with Americans for Prosperity told The Economist in October 2014. The parties, despite being called to judgment by voters for their performance, face all kinds of constraints and regulations that the private groups don’t, tilting the playing field against them. “The internal conversation we’ve been having is ‘How do we keep state parties alive?’ ” the director of a mountain-state Democratic Party organization told me and Raymond J. La Raja recently for a Brookings Institution report. Republicans told us the same story. “We believe we are fighting for our lives in the current legal and judicial framework, and the super pacs and (c)(4)s really present a direct threat to the state parties’ existence,” a southern state’s Republican Party director said. The state parties also told us they can’t begin to match the advertising money flowing from outside groups and candidates. Weakened by regulations and resource constraints, they have been reduced to spectators, while candidates and groups form circular firing squads and alienate voters. At the national level, the situation is even more chaotic—and ripe for exploitation by a savvy demagogue who can make himself heard above the din, as Donald Trump has so shrewdly proved. We reformed Congress. For a long time, seniority ruled on Capitol Hill. To exercise power, you had to wait for years, and chairs ran their committees like fiefs. It was an arrangement that hardly seemed either meritocratic or democratic. Starting with a rebellion by the liberal post-Watergate class in the ’70s, and then accelerating with the rise of Newt Gingrich and his conservative revolutionaries in the ’90s, the seniority and committee systems came under attack and withered. Power on the Hill has flowed both up to a few top leaders and down to individual members. Unfortunately, the reformers overlooked something important: Seniority and committee spots rewarded teamwork and loyalty, they ensured that people at the top were experienced, and they harnessed hundreds of middle-ranking members of Congress to the tasks of legislating. Compounding the problem, Gingrich’s Republican revolutionaries, eager to prove their anti-Washington bona fides, cut committee staffs by a third, further diminishing Congress’s institutional horsepower.Smoke-filled rooms were good for brokering complex compromises in which nothing was settled until everything was settled.
Congress’s attempts to replace hierarchies and middlemen with top-down diktat and ad hoc working groups have mostly failed. More than perhaps ever before, Congress today is a collection of individual entrepreneurs and pressure groups. In the House, disintermediation has shifted the balance of power toward a small but cohesive minority of conservative Freedom Caucus members who think nothing of wielding their power against their own leaders. Last year, as House Republicans struggled to agree on a new speaker, the conservatives did not blush at demanding “the right to oppose their leaders and vote down legislation without repercussions,” as Time magazine reported. In the Senate, Ted Cruz made himself a leading presidential contender by engaging in debt-limit brinkmanship and deriding the party’s leadership, going so far as to call Majority Leader Mitch McConnell a liar on the Senate floor. “The rhetoric—and confrontational stance—are classic Cruz,” wrote Burgess Everett in Politico last October: “Stake out a position to the right of where his leaders will end up, criticize them for ignoring him and conservative grass-roots voters, then use the ensuing internecine fight to stoke his presidential bid.” No wonder his colleagues detest him. But Cruz was doing what makes sense in an age of maximal political individualism, and we can safely bet that his success will inspire imitation. We reformed closed-door negotiations. As recently as the early 1970s, congressional committees could easily retreat behind closed doors and members could vote on many bills anonymously, with only the final tallies reported. Federal advisory committees, too, could meet off the record. Understandably, in the wake of Watergate, those practices came to be viewed as suspect. Today, federal law, congressional rules, and public expectations have placed almost all formal deliberations and many informal ones in full public view. One result is greater transparency, which is good. But another result is that finding space for delicate negotiations and candid deliberations can be difficult. Smoke-filled rooms, whatever their disadvantages, were good for brokering complex compromises in which nothing was settled until everything was settled; once gone, they turned out to be difficult to replace. In public, interest groups and grandstanding politicians can tear apart a compromise before it is halfway settled. Despite promising to televise negotiations over health-care reform, President Obama went behind closed doors with interest groups to put the package together; no sane person would have negotiated in full public view. In 2013, Congress succeeded in approving a modest bipartisan budget deal in large measure because the House and Senate Budget Committee chairs were empowered to “figure it out themselves, very, very privately,” as one Democratic aide told Jill Lawrence for a 2015 Brookings report. TV cameras, recorded votes, and public markups do increase transparency, but they come at the cost of complicating candid conversations. “The idea that Washington would work better if there were TV cameras monitoring every conversation gets it exactly wrong,” the Democratic former Senate majority leader Tom Daschle wrote in 2014, in his foreword to the book City of Rivals. “The lack of opportunities for honest dialogue and creative give-and-take lies at the root of today’s dysfunction.” We reformed pork. For most of American history, a principal goal of any member of Congress was to bring home bacon for his district. Pork-barrel spending never really cost very much, and it helped glue Congress together by giving members a kind of currency to trade: You support my pork, and I’ll support yours. Also, because pork was dispensed by powerful appropriations committees with input from senior congressional leaders, it provided a handy way for the leadership to buy votes and reward loyalists. Starting in the ’70s, however, and then snowballing in the ’90s, the regular appropriations process broke down, a casualty of reforms that weakened appropriators’ power, of “sunshine laws” that reduced their autonomy, and of polarization that complicated negotiations. Conservatives and liberals alike attacked pork-barreling as corrupt, culminating in early 2011, when a strange-bedfellows coalition of Tea Partiers and progressives banned earmarking, the practice of dropping goodies into bills as a way to attract votes—including, ironically, votes for politically painful spending reductions. Congress has not passed all its annual appropriations bills in 20 years, and more than $300 billion a year in federal spending goes out the door without proper authorization. Routine business such as passing a farm bill or a surface-transportation bill now takes years instead of weeks or months to complete. Today two-thirds of federal-program spending (excluding interest on the national debt) runs on formula-driven autopilot. This automatic spending by so-called entitlement programs eludes the discipline of being regularly voted on, dwarfs old-fashioned pork in magnitude, and is so hard to restrain that it’s often called the “third rail” of politics. The political cost has also been high: Congressional leaders lost one of their last remaining tools to induce followership and team play. “Trying to be a leader where you have no sticks and very few carrots is dang near impossible,” the Republican former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott told CNN in 2013, shortly after renegade Republicans pointlessly shut down the government. “Members don’t get anything from you and leaders don’t give anything. They don’t feel like you can reward them or punish them.”III. Pathogens Donald Trump and other viruses
By the beginning of this decade, the political system’s organic defenses against outsiders and insurgents were visibly crumbling. All that was needed was for the right virus to come along and exploit the opening. As it happened, two came along. In 2009, on the heels of President Obama’s election and the economic-bailout packages, angry fiscal conservatives launched the Tea Party insurgency and watched, somewhat to their own astonishment, as it swept the country. Tea Partiers shared some of the policy predilections of loyal Republican partisans, but their mind-set was angrily anti-establishment. In a 2013 Pew Research poll, more than 70 percent of them disapproved of Republican leaders in Congress. In a 2010 Pew poll, they had rejected compromise by similar margins. They thought nothing of mounting primary challenges against Republican incumbents, and they made a special point of targeting Republicans who compromised with Democrats or even with Republican leaders. In Congress, the Republican House leadership soon found itself facing a GOP caucus whose members were too worried about “getting primaried” to vote for the compromises necessary to govern—or even to keep the government open. Threats from the Tea Party and other purist factions often outweigh any blandishments or protection that leaders can offer. So far the Democrats have been mostly spared the anti-compromise insurrection, but their defenses are not much stronger. Molly Ball recently reported for The Atlantic’s Web site on the Working Families Party, whose purpose is “to make Democratic politicians more accountable to their liberal base through the asymmetric warfare party primaries enable, much as the conservative movement has done to Republicans.” Because African Americans and union members still mostly behave like party loyalists, and because the Democratic base does not want to see President Obama fail, the Tea Party trick hasn’t yet worked on the left. But the Democrats are vulnerable structurally, and the anti-compromise virus is out there. A second virus was initially identified in 2002, by the University of Nebraska at Lincoln political scientists John R. Hibbing and Elizabeth Theiss-Morse, in their book Stealth Democracy: Americans’ Beliefs About How Government Should Work. It’s a shocking book, one whose implications other scholars were understandably reluctant to engage with. The rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, however, makes confronting its thesis unavoidable. Using polls and focus groups, Hibbing and Theiss-Morse found that between 25 and 40 percent of Americans (depending on how one measures) have a severely distorted view of how government and politics are supposed to work. I think of these people as “politiphobes,” because they see the contentious give-and-take of politics as unnecessary and distasteful. Specifically, they believe that obvious, commonsense solutions to the country’s problems are out there for the plucking. The reason these obvious solutions are not enacted is that politicians are corrupt, or self-interested, or addicted to unnecessary partisan feuding. Not surprisingly, politiphobes think the obvious, commonsense solutions are the sorts of solutions that they themselves prefer. But the more important point is that they do not acknowledge that meaningful policy disagreement even exists. From that premise, they conclude that all the arguing and partisanship and horse-trading that go on in American politics are entirely unnecessary. Politicians could easily solve all our problems if they would only set aside their craven personal agendas. If politicians won’t do the job, then who will? Politiphobes, according to Hibbing and Theiss-Morse, believe policy should be made not by messy political conflict and negotiations but by ensids: empathetic, non-self-interested decision makers. These are leaders who will step forward, cast aside cowardly politicians and venal special interests, and implement long-overdue solutions. ensids can be politicians, technocrats, or autocrats—whatever works. Whether the process is democratic is not particularly important. Chances are that politiphobes have been out there since long before Hibbing and Theiss-Morse identified them in 2002. Unlike the Tea Party or the Working Families Party, they aren’t particularly ideological: They have popped up left, right, and center. Ross Perot’s independent presidential candidacies of 1992 and 1996 appealed to the idea that any sensible businessman could knock heads together and fix Washington. In 2008, Barack Obama pandered to a center-left version of the same fantasy, promising to magically transcend partisan politics and implement the best solutions from both parties. No previous outbreak, however, compares with the latest one, which draws unprecedented virulence from two developments. One is a steep rise in antipolitical sentiment, especially on the right. According to polling by Pew, from 2007 to early 2016 the percentage of Americans saying they would be less likely to vote for a presidential candidate who had been an elected official in Washington for many years than for an outsider candidate more than doubled, from 15 percent to 31 percent. Republican opinion has shifted more sharply still: The percentage of Republicans preferring “new ideas and a different approach” over “experience and a proven record” almost doubled in just the six months from March to September of 2015. The other development, of course, was Donald Trump, the perfect vector to concentrate politiphobic sentiment, intensify it, and inject it into presidential politics. He had too much money and free media to be spent out of the race. He had no political record to defend. He had no political debts or party loyalty. He had no compunctions. There was nothing to restrain him from sounding every note of the politiphobic fantasy with perfect pitch. Democrats have not been immune, either. Like Trump, Bernie Sanders appealed to the antipolitical idea that the mere act of voting for him would prompt a “revolution” that would somehow clear up such knotty problems as health-care coverage, financial reform, and money in politics. Like Trump, he was a self-sufficient outsider without customary political debts or party loyalty. Like Trump, he neither acknowledged nor cared—because his supporters neither acknowledged nor cared—that his plans for governing were delusional. Trump, Sanders, and Ted Cruz have in common that they are political sociopaths—meaning not that they are crazy, but that they don’t care what other politicians think about their behavior and they don’t need to care. That three of the four final presidential contenders in 2016 were political sociopaths is a sign of how far chaos syndrome has gone. The old, mediated system selected such people out. The new, disintermediated system seems to be selecting them in.IV. Symptoms The disorder that exacerbates all other disorders
There is nothing new about political insurgencies in the United States—nor anything inherently wrong with them. Just the opposite, in fact: Insurgencies have brought fresh ideas and renewed participation to the political system since at least the time of Andrew Jackson. There is also nothing new about insiders losing control of the presidential nominating process. In 1964 and 1972, to the dismay of party regulars, nominations went to unelectable candidates—Barry Goldwater for the Republicans in 1964 and George McGovern for the Democrats in 1972—who thrilled the parties’ activist bases and went on to predictably epic defeats. So it’s tempting to say, “Democracy is messy. Insurgents have fair gripes. Incumbents should be challenged. Who are you, Mr. Establishment, to say the system is broken merely because you don’t like the people it is pushing forward?” The problem is not, however, that disruptions happen. The problem is that chaos syndrome wreaks havoc on the system’s ability to absorb and channel disruptions. Trying to quash political disruptions would probably only create more of them. The trick is to be able to govern through them. Leave aside the fact that Goldwater and McGovern, although ideologues, were estimable figures within their parties. (McGovern actually co-chaired a Democratic Party commission that rewrote the nominating rules after 1968, opening the way for his own campaign.) Neither of them, either as senator or candidate, wanted to or did disrupt the ordinary workings of government. Jason Grumet, the president of the Bipartisan Policy Center and the author of City of Rivals, likes to point out that within three weeks of Bill Clinton’s impeachment by the House of Representatives, the president was signing new laws again. “While they were impeaching him they were negotiating, they were talking, they were having committee hearings,” Grumet said in a recent speech. “And so we have to ask ourselves, what is it that not long ago allowed our government to metabolize the aggression that is inherent in any pluralistic society and still get things done?” I have been covering Washington since the early 1980s, and I’ve seen a lot of gridlock. Sometimes I’ve been grateful for gridlock, which is an appropriate outcome when there is no working majority for a particular policy. For me, however, 2011 brought a wake-up call. The system was failing even when there was a working majority. That year, President Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner, in intense personal negotiations, tried to clinch a budget agreement that touched both parties’ sacred cows, curtailing growth in the major entitlement programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security by hundreds of billions of dollars and increasing revenues by $800 billion or more over 10 years, as well as reducing defense and nondefense discretionary spending by more than $1 trillion. Though it was less grand than previous budgetary “grand bargains,” the package represented the kind of bipartisan accommodation that constitutes the federal government’s best and perhaps only path to long-term fiscal stability.V. Prognosis and Treatment Chaos syndrome as a psychiatric disorder
I don’t have a quick solution to the current mess, but I do think it would be easy, in principle, to start moving in a better direction. Although returning parties and middlemen to anything like their 19th-century glory is not conceivable—or, in today’s America, even desirable—strengthening parties and middlemen is very doable. Restrictions inhibiting the parties from coordinating with their own candidates serve to encourage political wildcatting, so repeal them. Limits on donations to the parties drive money to unaccountable outsiders, so lift them. Restoring the earmarks that help grease legislative success requires nothing more than a change in congressional rules. And there are all kinds of ways the parties could move insiders back to the center of the nomination process. If they wanted to, they could require would-be candidates to get petition signatures from elected officials and county party chairs, or they could send unbound delegates to their conventions (as several state parties are doing this year), or they could enhance the role of middlemen in a host of other ways. Building party machines and political networks is what career politicians naturally do, if they’re allowed to do it. So let them. I’m not talking about rigging the system to exclude challengers or prevent insurgencies. I’m talking about de-rigging the system to reduce its pervasive bias against middlemen. Then they can do their job, thereby making the world safe for challengers and insurgencies. Unfortunately, although the mechanics of de-rigging are fairly straightforward, the politics of it are hard. The public is wedded to an anti-establishment narrative. The political-reform community is invested in direct participation, transparency, fund-raising limits on parties, and other elements of the anti-intermediation worldview. The establishment, to the extent that there still is such a thing, is demoralized and shattered, barely able to muster an argument for its own existence. But there are optimistic signs, too. Liberals in the campaign-finance-reform community are showing new interest in strengthening the parties. Academics and commentators are getting a good look at politics without effective organizers and cohesive organizations, and they are terrified. On Capitol Hill, conservatives and liberals alike are on board with restoring regular order in Congress. In Washington, insiders have had some success at reorganizing and pushing back. No Senate Republican was defeated by a primary challenger in 2014, in part because then–Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a machine politician par excellence, created a network of business allies to counterpunch against the Tea Party. The biggest obstacle, I think, is the general public’s reflexive, unreasoning hostility to politicians and the process of politics. Neurotic hatred of the political class is the country’s last universally acceptable form of bigotry. Because that problem is mental, not mechanical, it really is hard to remedy. In March, a Trump supporter told The New York Times, “I want to see Trump go up there and do damage to the Republican Party.” Another said, “We know who Donald Trump is, and we’re going to use Donald Trump to either take over the G.O.P. or blow it up.” That kind of anti-establishment nihilism deserves no respect or accommodation in American public life. Populism, individualism, and a skeptical attitude toward politics are all healthy up to a point, but America has passed that point. Political professionals and parties have many shortcomings to answer for—including, primarily on the Republican side, their self-mutilating embrace of anti-establishment rhetoric—but relentlessly bashing them is no solution. You haven’t heard anyone say this, but it’s time someone did: Our most pressing political problem today is that the country abandoned the establishment, not the other way around. ============================================ 3. THIS MONTH’S LINKS: WHY YOU CAN’T DISMISS THE POPULISM BEHIND THE BREXIT MARINE LE PEN: AFTER BREXIT THE PEOPLE’S SPRING IS INEVITABLE BRITISH LOSE RIGHT TO CLAIM AMERICANS ARE DUMBER WHY GROUP BERNIE WITH BREXIT & TRUMP? ============================================ © Copyright 2015, by William R. Idol, except where indicated otherwise. All rights reserved worldwide. Reprint only with permission from copyright holder(s). All trademarks are property of their respective owners. All contents provided as is. No express or implied income claims made herein. We neither use nor endorse the use of spam. Please feel free to use excerpts from this blog as long as you give credit with a link to our page: http://fatherwilliam.org/blog/. Thank you! ============================================“Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad…”
Using this apt Latin metaphor, in a recent post, Ed Darrell notes the absurdity of the current US mid-term election campaign……An electorate that was passive in 2000 when the US Supreme Court stole a presidential election and the ‘winner’ in that election went on to wage war against a country that could not have threatened the US or defended itself is now screaming ‘socialism’ when the government seeks to provide a minimum level of health care to the young and the elderly while careful to preserve the high profits of insurance companies. An electorate seemingly unconcerned with the enormous cost of the illegal wars waged in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the evidence of billions of dollars being distributed in plastic bags, is enraged at a modest stimulus to the US economy. An electorate that does not register the torture of Iraqis by US forces or the ‘rendition’ of alleged ‘terrorists’ for torture by other states sees plans to build a mosque in downtown Manhattan as proof of the Islamicization of the United States. It is an electorate that continues to believe, in spite of all evidence to the contrary, that its first non-Caucasian president is a Muslim.Age of Actualization: A Handbook for Growing Elder Culture ©️2014 by ===================================================
7. THIS MONTH’S LINKS: REMEMBERING THE GADGETS THAT CHANGED US… AN UNCOMMONLY TENDER MEDITATION ON THE CYCLE OF LIFE… SOME MIND-BLOWING PLACES ON THE EARTH =================================================== © Copyright 2016, by William R. Idol, except where indicated otherwise. All rights reserved worldwide. Reprint only with permission from copyright holder(s). All trademarks are property of their respective owners. All contents provided as is. No express or implied income claims made herein. We neither use nor endorse the use of spam. ===================================================Reluctance = Resistance
I’ve been going through something lately. Something big. Its beating me up, and teaching me a great deal. I’m not really going to describe the details, but I am going to dwell on the process. I’ve found that as I get older that the process of integration, that is happening, brings me up against some of my life-long patterns. When that happens I usually don’t respond very well. I am reluctant to let myself feel the conflict, disappointment, and grief within. I guess it is only natural. I’m human, and much of what confronts me, are patterns of belief and behavior that have clearly defined me in the past. Life doesn’t seem to care. At least in no way that I have considered caring. What I’m finding is that Life is impeccably ruthless. It rubs my face in the messes I have indulged in making. There is some kind of impersonal and highly idiosyncratic love at work. I’m being shaped up despite myself. The process is reliable, painful, and grace-filled. Life seems to know how to evolve a better me, and very slowly I’m learning how to trust that process and cooperate with it. I think it was the developmentalist Robert Kegan that first impressed me with the realization that resisting Life is painful. I do it all of the time. And, I am paying for it. But, as I get older, I’m more prone to notice what is at stake, and to suffer more honestly. That means I am more likely to admit to myself, and others, that I have succeeded again in getting in my own way, and making it hard to change. I would rather fight anything than fight myself. Despite my resolve, Life keeps finding the blemishes in my character that need attention, and calling my attention to them. Right now, I’m being faced with my own well-designed falseness. I’ve lived out a kind of arrogant stance that I know has hurt me, and especially those I professed to care for. That’s a hard awareness to be confronted by. And I’m really grateful that I’m being confronted by it right now, when I can still do something about it, rather than in my last moments of life. Life seems to have a bucket list for me, that if I handle some of these items, I’m going to rest easier when I die. That seems like a kind of compassionate justice I could never imagine. The problem of the moment is that I have such a reluctance to face the music. It is humiliating, admitting one’s shortcomings; facing how unloving, and self-protective, one is (I’m not past anything yet). I’m not collapsing into shame, although I can feel the temptation. I am standing forlornly in front of my own humanity. I can see that my own reluctance to see what a schlemiel I am capable of being has been a form of resistance. I didn’t want to know myself that well. This kind of self-knowing is a painful gift. Life cares about me enough to make me really uncomfortable with what I am capable of. And, it’s giving me a chance to find out where integrity lays in my life. In some kind of strange twist of fate, my gratitude grows as I open up to the hurt I have participated in perpetuating. With all of that kind of awareness cascading into my life like an avalanche of wakefulness, I am enlivened and chagrined. My reluctance before awareness is clearly putting off the inevitability of the gift. Am I resisting, or merely crouching in anticipation of the loving blow? I really can’t say. I know that I have resisted, and that my reluctance has abetted my resistance. I am that human, stubbornly determined to have things my way. But, lately, aging has softened me up, and provided more perspective. I now walk towards what diminishes me, in an effort to cooperate more with the wholing process I now perceive. Reluctance is turning out to be a faithful scout, a little scraggly, deceptively anxious, but unerring in noticing that something is coming. And, I’m finding that even a broken life is an incredible gift. At 77, Old FW couldn’t agree more. So if you, like millions of US voters, are feeling some ‘reluctance’ this political season, see if you don’t find some peace in ‘the wholing process’ Lucky and many other elders can now perceive… Love, FW PS: If you’d like to see how ‘The Growth Curve” has evolved into “The Wave of Transformation,” click here. www.FatherWilliam.org ================================================= 2. THE DONALD, SACHA BARON COHEN, DYLAN, FREUD, OPRAH AND THE GROWTH CURVE… BY THE YOUNG MAN, APRIL 12, 2016FLEXIBLE PERSISTENCE
“But there is a special skill to great performance, and that is, as Kenny Rogers sings, “You’ve got to know when to hold ’em/ Know when to fold ’em/ Know when to walk away/ And know when to run.” The outstanding performer knows when to hold to course, when to change course and when to quit the race. “In his study of peak performers in business, Charles Garfield found one of their traits to be the ability to change course when appropriate. More importantly, he found that peak performers know things never stay perfectly on course; they expect changes (course deviations) and can enjoy making the corrections and using them for gain.” Quite simply, what this means is if The Donald is going to succeed as a Charismatic/Transformational Leader, he will have to adjust, along the way, to allow for more people to become comfortable with both his ability to lead and the message of his leadership. In this instance, it is also quite likely those who are already on board with Trump will have to adjust their visions of the future, largely because of their faith, and psychological investment, in their leader. As a possible “for instance”, for the longest times, people, on the left, have been perplexed by the fact many people, who identify with the right, are actually some of the very same people who would benefit greatly by the policy proposals offered by the left. This is exactly the sort of paradox one would expect to encounter in the Unforming Phase of the Growth Curve. A Charismatic/Transformational Leader can quite possibly make inroads with this cohort of people, where other leaders have been unsuccessful. While this bears some resemblance to Nixon going to China, or the Reykjavík Summit between Reagan and Gorbachev, which culminated in the INF treaty between the two nations roughly a year later, it is much more like Johnson getting the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and then Medicare in 1966, passed on the heels of the death of President Kennedy.(3) If we don’t get it accomplished this time around, at least at the national level, as I’ve stated before, we will likely continue on into a version of the societal Unforming President Roosevelt confronted when he was elected in 1932, even if it is not an outright economic depression. And please, let’s put aside the question of whether Roosevelt went to war to start the “correction.” For our purposes, this is virtually irrelevant. What’s more important to note, however, is how long the United States can remain in a state of Unforming, or Transforming, and still come out the other end and move into the Transforming or Reforming Phases. Right now, it is impossible to predict what will happen next. For those who already support Trump the answers are much easier, although they will be confronted with The Donald modifying his message as we move into the general election. For those on the left, what I would say is this, in the language of my former profession: There exists a rebuttable presumption Trump is not the Charismatic/Transformational Leader this country needs at this stage in its history. Gage Skidmore / CC BY-SA * npr.com / CC BY 2.0
BY MONA CHAREN, FROM THE RIGHT/POLITICS, MARCH 22, 2016
I first became aware of Donald Trump when he chose to make cheating on his first wife front-page news. It was the early ’90s. Donald and Ivana Trump broke up over the course of months. Not that divorce is shocking, mind you; among the glitterati marriage seems more unusual. Nor is infidelity exactly novel. But it requires a particular breed of lowlife to advertise the sexual superiority of one’s mistress over the mother of one’s children. That was Trump’s style. He leaked stories to the New York tabloids about Ivana’s breast implants — they didn’t feel right. Marla Maples, by contrast, suited him better. She, proving her suitability for the man she was eager to steal from his family, told the papers that her encounters with the mogul were “the best sex I’ve ever had.”
It wasn’t just Donald Trump’s betrayal that caught my eye, nor just the tawdriness: It was the cruelty. That’s the part of the Trump rise that is quite shocking. Most politicians, for as long as I can remember, have been at considerable pains to present themselves as nicer, nobler and more empathetic than they really are. Since many of them (not all) are selfish egotists, this requires some skill. Now comes Trump unblushingly parading his viciousness — by, for example, mocking a handicapped man, toying with white supremacy or encouraging political violence — and still gaining the loyalty of a plurality of Republicans. One can imagine why voters might tolerate a little nastiness in certain situations. It’s possible that the threat of ISIS-style war crimes makes a would-be leader who vows to commit war crimes of his own seem palatable, or even “strong.” It’s not a total surprise that a regime of stifling political correctness would evoke a reaction. But voters are venturing way out on a plank with Trump — and I’m not speaking here of the fact that he is overwhelmingly likely to lose to Hillary Clinton if he’s the Republican nominee. No, I’m referring to the copious evidence that if he won, he could cause catastrophic damage to the country. Donald Trump is not emotionally healthy. No normal man sits up late at night tweeting dozens of insults about Megyn Kelly, or skips a key debate because he’s nursing a grudge against her for asking perfectly ordinary questions, or continues to obsess about her weeks and months after the fact. A normal, well-adjusted man does not go to great lengths to prove to a random journalist that he has normal-sized fingers. Some may think it was Rubio who introduced the “small hands” business, but it actually dates back to an encounter Trump had 25 years ago with journalist Graydon Carter. Carter had referred to Trump as a “short-fingered vulgarian” in Spy magazine. Trump could not let it go. Carter told Vanity Fair in 2015: “To this day, I receive the occasional envelope from Trump. There is always a photo of him — generally a tear sheet from a magazine. On all of them he has circled his hand in gold Sharpie in a valiant effort to highlight the length of his fingers. … The most recent offering arrived earlier this year, before his decision to go after the Republican presidential nomination. Like the other packages, this one included a circled hand and the words, also written in gold Sharpie: ‘See, not so short!'” Notice he didn’t contest the “vulgarian” part of the insult. And remember that at a presidential debate, for God’s sake, Trump brought it up himself and assured the world that “there is no problem. I guarantee.” I don’t believe that guarantee, and I’m not talking about his genitals. There is an enormous problem. Trump seems to suffer from narcissistic personality disorder, an insecurity so consuming and crippling that he has devoted his life to self-aggrandizement. This is far beyond the puffery that most salesmen indulge to some degree. It strays well into the bizarre. Asked whom he consults on foreign policy Trump said, “I’m speaking with myself, number one, because I have a very good brain and I’ve said a lot of things.” What grown man says things like that and continues to be taken seriously? How can he be leading the race for the Republican nomination? People with severe ego weakness are to be pitied — but also feared. Everything Trump says and does is a form of self-medication for a damaged soul. His need to disparage others, to glorify himself and to be the “strongman” could lead to disastrous judgments by the man in charge of the nuclear codes. Mona Charen is a Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. To read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com. Copyright 2016 Creators Syndicate Inc. http://www.arcamax.com/politics/fromtheright/monacharen/s-1811213 ================================================= 5. TRUMP: A FRIGHTENING WINDOW INTO THE AMERICAN PRESENT BY JELANI COBB, WWW.NEWYORKER.COM, MARCH 15, 2016==================================================
THE CENTER FOR THIRD AGE LEADERSHIP NEWSLETTER – FEBRUARY 2016 1. FATHER WILLIAM’S MUSINGS 2. INTEGRATION: A REPORT FROM THE SLOW LANE 3. WHAT IS PSYCHOSYNTHESIS? 4. THIS MONTH’S LINKS ================================================== QUOTE OF THE MONTH – DAVID ‘LUCKY’ GOFF “Soft enough to be permeable, Solid enough to maintain integrity.” ================================================== 1. FATHER WILLIAM’S MUSINGS February Greetings, Dear Friends…=================================================
THE CENTER FOR THIRD AGE LEADERSHIP NEWSLETTER – JANUARY 2016 1. FATHER WILLIAM’S MUSINGS 2. ELDERS COME IN ALL AGES 3. “AMIDST ALL THE NOISE, TO WHOM SHOULD WE LISTEN?” 4. “IT WILL ONLY HAPPEN IF WE FIX OUR POLITICS…” 5. “THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH BLAME TO GO AROUND…” 6. “TO CALL ON THE BETTER ANGELS OF PEOPLE’S NATURES…” 7. THIS MONTH’S LINKS ================================================= QUOTES OF THE MONTH – JUSTIN TRUDEAU & ANONYMOUS.“Once you get elected through dividing people it becomes very hard to govern responsibly for everyone.”
“10% of conflicts are due to differences in opinion. 90% are due to wrong tone of voice.”
======================================= 1. FATHER WILLIAM’S MUSINGS January Greetings, Dear Friends… As you can probably guess from the quotes above, this month’s newsletter is focused on the TONE rather than the CONTENT of communications. I was inspired in this direction by two personal emails, and, as strange as it may sound, three political speeches. You’ll find January’s Musings shared between those five items in Sections 2-6. Enjoy… Love, FW www.FatherWilliam.org ================================================= 2. ELDERS COME IN ALL AGESPhotograph © Evan Vucci/dpa/Corbis
“Good evening.
“I’m Nikki Haley, Governor of the great state of South Carolina… “…At the outset, I’ll say this: you’ve paid attention to what has been happening in Washington, and you’re not naive. “Neither am I. I see what you see. And many of your frustrations are my frustrations. “A frustration with a government that has grown day after day, year after year, yet doesn’t serve us any better. A frustration with the same, endless conversations we hear over and over again. A frustration with promises made and never kept. “We need to be honest with each other, and with ourselves: while Democrats in Washington bear much responsibility for the problems facing America today, they do not bear it alone. There is more than enough blame to go around. “We as Republicans need to own that truth. We need to recognize our contributions to the erosion of the public trust in America’s leadership. We need to accept that we’ve played a role in how and why our government is broken. “And then we need to fix it. “The foundation that has made America that last, best hope on earth hasn’t gone anywhere. It still exists. It is up to us to return to it. “For me, that starts right where it always has: I am the proud daughter of Indian immigrants who reminded my brothers, my sister and me every day how blessed we were to live in this country. “Growing up in the rural south, my family didn’t look like our neighbors, and we didn’t have much. There were times that were tough, but we had each other, and we had the opportunity to do anything, to be anything, as long as we were willing to work for it. “My story is really not much different from millions of other Americans. Immigrants have been coming to our shores for generations to live the dream that is America. They wanted better for their children than for themselves. That remains the dream of all of us, and in this country we have seen time and again that that dream is achievable. “Today, we live in a time of threats like few others in recent memory. During anxious times, it can be tempting to follow the siren call of the angriest voices. We must resist that temptation. “No one who is willing to work hard, abide by our laws, and love our traditions should ever feel unwelcome in this country. “At the same time, that does not mean we just flat out open our borders. We can’t do that. We cannot continue to allow immigrants to come here illegally. And in this age of terrorism, we must not let in refugees whose intentions cannot be determined. “We must fix our broken immigration system. That means stopping illegal immigration. And it means welcoming properly vetted legal immigrants, regardless of their race or religion. Just like we have for centuries. “I have no doubt that if we act with proper focus, we can protect our borders, our sovereignty and our citizens, all while remaining true to America’s noblest legacies. “This past summer, South Carolina was dealt a tragic blow. On an otherwise ordinary Wednesday evening in June, at the historic Mother Emanuel church in Charleston, twelve faithful men and women, young and old, went to Bible study. “That night, someone new joined them. He didn’t look like them, didn’t act like them, didn’t sound like them. They didn’t throw him out. They didn’t call the police. Instead, they pulled up a chair and prayed with him. For an hour. “We lost nine incredible souls that night. “What happened after the tragedy is worth pausing to think about. “Our state was struck with shock, pain, and fear. But our people would not allow hate to win. We didn’t have violence, we had vigils. We didn’t have riots, we had hugs. “We didn’t turn against each other’s race or religion. We turned toward God, and to the values that have long made our country the freest and greatest in the world. “We removed a symbol that was being used to divide us, and we found a strength that united us against a domestic terrorist and the hate that filled him. “There’s an important lesson in this. In many parts of society today, whether in popular culture, academia, the media, or politics, there’s a tendency to falsely equate noise with results. “Some people think that you have to be the loudest voice in the room to make a difference. That is just not true. Often, the best thing we can do is turn down the volume. When the sound is quieter, you can actually hear what someone else is saying. And that can make a world of difference. “Of course that doesn’t mean we won’t have strong disagreements. We will. And as we usher in this new era, Republicans will stand up for our beliefs… “And rather than just thanking our brave men and women in uniform, we would actually strengthen our military, so both our friends and our enemies would know that America seeks peace, but when we fight wars we win them. “We have big decisions to make. Our country is being tested. “But we’ve been tested in the past, and our people have always risen to the challenge. We have all the guidance we need to be safe and successful. “Our forefathers paved the way for us. “Let’s take their values, and their strengths, and rededicate ourselves to doing whatever it takes to keep America the greatest country in the history of man. And woman. “Thank you, good night, and God bless.” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nikki-haley-sotu-response_56959342e4b086bc1cd5cf6e Thank you, Nikky Haley, for the TONE of your response – it is one of an Elder who can lead us and, hopefully, “bring us together.” I’ve been hoping for such leadership since I saw that on a sign held up during one of Nixon’s campaign stops in 1968. Yes, please, Elders, come forward to lead us in TONE so we work together across our marvelous diversity! And there does seem to be a country with leadership that is doing just that… ================================================= 6. “TO CALL ON THE BETTER ANGELS OF PEOPLE’S NATURES…” BY KEVIN J.DELANEY, WWW.QZ.COM, JANUARY 20, 2016Glass half full. (Reuters/Ruben Sprich)
The mood among world leaders is pretty gloomy. Reasons include the ongoing ISIL threat, the millions of displaced people in the Mideast and Europe, and disappointing economic growth, just to name a few.
But Canada’s new prime minister, Justin Trudeau, is amazingly unfazed by the storm clouds all around. “I can’t help but being tremendously optimistic,” the 44-year-old leader told attendees of the World Economic Forum’s annual Davos gathering. His electoral mandate is to “provide a positive and good government for Canadians,” Trudeau says, “rather than focusing on what we’re scared of.” But what about the prospect of terrorism attacks on Canadian soil? “People are open to not choosing to live in constant fear,” Trudeau says. “We have to make a choice about how much we’re going to close and limit and crack down on our society in order to protect it.” What about short-term costs and security risks represented by open immigration? “Diversity isn’t just sound social policy. Diversity is the engine of invention,” says Trudeau. “It generates creativity that helps change the world. We know this in Canada.” How about the impact of low oil prices on Canada’s energy-producing economy? “The low oil prices are a challenge but the Canadian economy is a lot more than natural resources,” says Trudeau. What about the costs of transitioning to a greener economy? “We can fight climate change without sacrificing growth and prosperity,” he says. Trudeau’s optimism is all the more stark against German chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to decline her invitation to Davos in order to stay home to deal with the migrant crisis. And his strategy for getting the Canadian electorate to share in his optimism sounds rather, well, optimistic—especially in light of the fractious situation gripping his neighbor to the south, where US president Barack Obama, in his latest state of the union address, highlighted the US political divisions he regrets that he has failed to erase. “Once you get elected through dividing people it becomes very hard to govern responsibly for everyone,” Trudeau says. “The choice we made was to call on ‘the better angels of people’s natures,’ to use a great Lincoln line.” Will future events make Trudeau’s optimism look foolish? Canada’s new leader has made it clear he’s willing to take that risk. http://qz.com/598678/justin-trudeau-has-to-be-the-most-optimistic-man-on-earth/ I don’t see Justin Trudeau as “the most optimistic man on earth”; to me he is that rare combination of a leader who is psychologically astute, morally courageous and verbally superb. May we all have many more! See you next month, FW ================================================= 7. THIS MONTH’S LINKS: 2015 IN INTERACTIVE STORYTELLING…… http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/us/year-in-interactive-storytelling.html?em_pos=large&emc=edit_nn_20151230&nl=morning-briefing&nlid=73301161&_r=0 COLBERT WELCOMES PALIN’S ENDORSEMENT OF TRUMP… http://www.cbs.com/shows/the-late-show-with-stephen-colbert/video/D0E33012-1859-9AD3-CDAB-619C2022CD18/the-original-material-girl-is-back/
AND JUST IN CASE U.S. POLITICS DON’T SEEM CRAZY ENOUGH…